## Poland’s Controlled Gambling Expansion is Devouring Offshore Rivals’ Market Share – Regulation – iGB
**A recent analysis of the gambling industry reveals that the expansion of regulated gambling in Poland is steadily diminishing the market share held by offshore competitors. However, the study also suggests that this trend may continue to decline.**
**Poland’s Controlled Gambling Expansion is Devouring Offshore Rivals’ Market Share**
This study, commissioned by the Polish lottery operator Totalizator Sportowy, estimates that in 2020, unlicensed operators generated 6.274 billion zloty in gambling revenue.
This represents a 25.6% market share, with another 18.2 billion zloty generated by licensed gambling operators or Totalizator Sportowy’s online casino.
This follows amendments to the country’s gambling laws, which imposed a 12% turnover tax on online sports betting operators and granted the national regulator the authority to block offshore websites.
The re-regulation appears to have ushered in a period of rapid growth in the online sports betting sector, with revenue increasing from an estimated 9.991 billion zloty in 2018 to 15 billion zloty in 2020. According to H2, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% between 2016 and 2026.
iGB’s primary data partner adds that the legal online casino, launched in 2019, is expected to reach 6.752 billion zloty in revenue by 2026.
The director of H2, David Henwood, stated that more than 120 online platforms are targeting Polish players without authorization. Numerous other operators accept wagers from Polish patrons without actively seeking to attract them. He mentioned that roughly ten entities possess licenses in Malta, Curaçao, and Gibraltar, which represent approximately 80% of offshore gambling earnings.
Henwood elaborated that this has resulted in an estimated worth of the online gambling black market of around 6.294 billion zloty in 2020. He indicated that this value would have been significantly greater if not for the regulations introduced by the 2017 Gambling Act.
Henwood asserted that Poland is effectively blocking illicit websites and hindering payments compared to other nations. However, he expressed that regulations, particularly tax regulations, and restrictions on advertising for legal operators remain a challenge that pushes customers towards the illegal market.
A 12% tax on gambling revenue has prompted several well-known operators to withdraw from the market. Totalizator Sportowy, the state-owned gambling company, is prohibited from promoting its Playtech-powered online casino, and online poker is yet to be regulated.
H2 estimates that 1.5% of Polish adults have utilized an unlicensed gambling operator at least once per month, and 2.6% have participated in online casino or poker games through offshore websites.
This indicates that during the last year, a total of 1.16 million Polish adults have engaged in online gambling without authorization,” Henwood stated. Consequently, he suggested that by addressing key concerns, the scope of the unregulated market can be further minimized.
To achieve this, Totalizator Sportowy could be granted the right to promote its casino offerings and permitted to incorporate online poker into its range of slot and table games. The turnover tax could also be substituted with a standardized, overall revenue rate across all sectors.
This tax modification could result in a surge in tax earnings to 1.8 billion zloty, nearly double the 900 million zloty generated by the Polish Ministry of Finance in 2020.
Despite the substantial presence of offshore operations within the market, Polish individuals utilizing unlicensed websites for gambling could encounter severe penalties, including fines of up to 1 million zloty.
However, if regulations remain unchanged, the market is still projected to expand considerably. H2 predicts that total online and offshore GGR will attain 4.14 billion zloty by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 12.7% from 2018.
Of this total, 3.24 billion zloty will originate from the regulated market, while an additional 901.3 million zloty will be derived from offshore rivals.
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